Pao-Li
CHANG (張寶莉)
|
Associate Dean (Research
and Industry Engagement) Associate Professor of
Economics School of Economics Singapore Management
University 90 Stamford Road, #05-042 Singapore 178903 Tel:
(65) 6828-0830 Fax:
(65) 6828-0833 E-mail: plchang@smu.edu.sg |
|
Ph.D., Economics, University of Michigan, 2002.
A.M., Economics, University of Michigan, 1997.
A.B., Business Administration, National Taiwan University, 1994.
Bio:
Pao-Li is currently the Associate Dean (Research and Industry Engagement) and an Associate Professor of Economics at Singapore Management University
(SMU).
She
graduated with a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan. Pao-Li has published in renowned journals
such as International Economic Review,
Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Management Science, Econometrics Journal, and Mathematical Social Sciences. She has served on the
editorial board of: Review of World
Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches
Archiv), Economic Modelling, Taiwan
Economic Review (National Taiwan University, Taiwan), Taipei
Economic Inquiry (National Taipei
University, Taiwan), Journal of Economic Integration, and Journal of
International Trade & Economic Development.
Research areas:
GATT/WTO institution and
laws
Political
economy of trade policies
Empirical
analysis of trade and foreign direct investment
Quantitative analysis of trade flows and welfare evaluations
Effects
of political institutions on FDI flows
Impact of
education systems on human capital composition and trade patterns
Measurement of global value chain
Effects
of preference and demand shocks on trade flows
Estimation of firm-level production function with spatial dependence
Impacts
of floods on firm-level micro performances
Journal
Articles
1. “Global
Value Chains and the CPTPP,” The
World Economy, 2022, 45(12), pp. 3780-3832. With Phuong T. B.
Nguyen.
Article Data & Programs Working paper version
Working paper version: SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No.
12-2019.
2. “Good Names Beget Favors:
The Impact of Country Image on Trade Flows and Welfare,” Management Science, 2022, 68(10),
pp. 7065-7791. With Tomoki Fujii and
Wei Jin.
Article Data & Programs Working paper version Online Appendix
Working paper
version: SMU Economics and
Statistics Working Paper No. 03-2018. Circulated previously
under the title “Does “America First'' Help America? The Impact of Country Image on Exports and
Welfare.”
3.
“Informal Institutions and
Comparative Advantage of South-Based MNEs: Theory and Evidence,” Journal
of Development Economics, January 2021, 148, Article 102566. With
Yuting Chen.
4. “The Optimal Degree of Reciprocity in Tariff
Reduction,” East Asian Economic
Review (by Korea Institute for
International Economic Policy), 2020, 24(3), pp. 237-252.
5. “Made in
Singapore,” Singapore Economic Review, 2022, 67(06), pp. 1835-1904. With Phuong T. B. Nguyen.
6.
“Geography, Trade and Power-Law Phenomena,” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, January
2020. Oxford
University Press. With Wen-Tai Hsu.
7. “Trade and Divergence in Education Systems,” International Economic Review,
November 2014, 55(4): 1251–1280. With
Fali Huang (SMU).
8. “Risk and the
Technology Content of FDI: A Dynamic Model,” Journal of International Economics, March 2012, 86(2): 306–317. With Chia-Hui Lu (City
University of Hong Kong).
9. “The WTO Trade
Effect,” Journal
of International Economics, September 2011, 85(1): 53–71.
With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).
Article Data
& Programs Working
paper version
10. “Estimation of
Impulse Response Functions Using Long Autoregression,” Econometrics Journal, July 2007, 10(2): 453–469. With Shinichi Sakata (University of British
Columbia).
11. “Avoiding Arbitrary Exclusion Restrictions
Using Ratios of Reduced-Form Estimates,” Empirical Economics, 2007,
33: 339–357. With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).
12. “L S Penrose's
limit theorem: Tests by simulation,” Mathematical Social Sciences, January 2006, 51(1): 90–106. With Vincent C.H. Chua (SMU) and Moshé
Machover (LSE).
13. “Protection for
sale under monopolistic competition,” Journal of International Economics, July 2005, 66(2): 509–526.
14. “How accurate are
confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?” Economics Letters, December 2000, 69(3): 299–307. With Lutz Kilian (University of
Michigan).
Chapters in Books
1. “Singapore in the Global
Value Chains,” with Phuong T. B. Nguyen, in The Singapore
Economy: Dynamism and Inclusion, Hian Teck Hoon (ed), Routledge, 2021.
Working paper version: SMU
Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 1-2020.
2. “The Evolution and Utilization of the GATT/WTO Dispute
Settlement Mechanism,” in Trade Disputes and the Dispute
Settlement Understanding of The WTO, James C. Hartigan (ed), Emerald, 2009.
3.
“Trade, FDI,
and Regional Competition: The Case of Singapore,” in The Economic Prospects of Singapore, Winston T.H. Koh and Robert S.
Mariano (eds), Singapore: Addison Wesley, 2005.
Working
Papers (contact me for the latest version)
1. “Estimating Firm-Level
Production Functions with Spatial Dependence in Output, Input, and
Productivity,” with Ryo Makioka, Bo Lin Ng, and Zhenlin Yang. June 2024. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper
No. 10-2024. Under review.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2769)
2. “The Balance of Concessions
in Trade Agreements,” with
Mostafa Beshkar and Shenxi Song, June 2024. SMU Economics and Statistics
Working Paper No. 05-2024. Revision requested by American Economic
Journal: Economic Policy.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2753)
Previous version: Chapter 1 in Shenxi’s PhD dissertation. Circulated previously under the title “The
Balance of Concessions in the World Trade Organization.”
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/etd_coll/411/)
3. “The Depth
of Preferential Trade Agreements,” with Kefang Yao and Wei Jin, December 2023. SMU
Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 01-2024. Revision requested by IMF Economic
Review.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2722/)
4. “Using Satellite-observed
Geospatial Inundation Data to Identify the Impacts of Flood on Firm-level
Performances: The Case of China during 2000–2009”, with Fan Zheng, October
2023. SMU Economics and Statistics
Working Paper No. 01-2023.
Revision requested by the Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2653/)
5. “The GATT/WTO Welfare
Effects: 1950-2015,” with
Wei Jin and Kefang Yao,
November 2022. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 02-2018 (update
No. 04-2022). Under review.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/1957/)
6.
“Disentangling the Effects
of GATT/WTO on Variable and Fixed Trade Costs: Trade Status, Trade Margins, and
Export Sales Distribution,” with
Renjing Chen and Wei Jin, Oct 2022. SMU
Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 05-2022.
Under revision. (https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2612/)
7. “Labor Market
Participation, Income Distribution, and Welfare Gains from Trade,” with Yi-Fan Chen and
Wen-Tai Hsu, August 2022. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No.
06-2022. Under revision.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2614/)
8. “Labor Market Implications
of Taiwan’s Accession to the WTO: A Dynamic Quantitative Analysis,” with Yi-Fan Chen and Wen-Tai Hsu. SMU
Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 07-2022. Under revision.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2613/)
9. “The Response of the
Chinese Economy to the U.S.-China Trade War: 2018-2019,” with Kefang Yao and Fan Zheng. SMU Economics and Statistics Working
Paper No. 25-2020. Under
revision.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2415/)
10. “The Missing Middle in
Product Price Distribution,”
with Xin Yi and Haeyeon Yoon, January 2022. SMU Economics and
Statistics Working Paper No. 05-2021.
Also available at SSRN.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_working_paper/7/)
(https://ssrn.com/abstract=3889907)
11.
“The Potential Impacts of COVID-19 on the Global Value Chains: GVC
Positioning and Linkages,” with Gerald Foong. SMU Economics and
Statistics Working Paper No. 24-2020.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2411/)
12.
“Quantifying Quality Specialization Across Space:
Skills, Sorting, and Agglomeration,” with Angdi
Lu and Xin Yi, January 2020. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No.
2-2020.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2341/)
13. “Cultural Preferences in
International Trade: Evidence from the Globalization of Korean Pop Culture,” with
Iona Hyojung Lee, November 2018. SMU Economics and Statistics Working
Paper No. 05-2018.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2142/)
Work in Progress
1.
“Impacts of Global Value Chains on Singapore’s Firm-level Employment and
Productivity,” with Bo Lin Ng.
2. “Decomposing the Welfare
Effects of Deep Trade Agreements: A Synthetic Control Method,” with Kefang Yao.
Media Contributions and Citations
1. “Local Insights Into Global Value Chains,” Asian Management Insights, July 2025
2.
“Tracking the
Effects of Trade Shocks,” Research@SMU, May 2025
https://research.smu.edu.sg/news/2025/may/tracking-effects-trade-shocks
3.
“Trump 2.0 vs
Global Trade: What It Means for Singapore and the World,” Channel News Asia, 14 Feb 2025, mentioned in:
4. “How Covid-19 Could Transform the Global Economy,” SMU Engage: Thought Leadership, 21 April 2020
https://engage.smu.edu.sg/how-covid-19-could-transform-global-economy.
5.
“Singapore in the Global Value Chains,” The Business Times, Date: 18 March 2020
6.
“When Firms Turn Weakness
into Strength,” Asian Scientist Magazine, September 2019 https://www.asianscientist.com/2019/09/features/investments-singapore-china-government/.
7.
“The Intersection of
Education and Trade,” Asian Scientist Magazine, December 2013 https://www.asianscientist.com/2013/12/features/smu-professor-huang-fali-chang-pao-li-2013/. With Fali Huang.
Latest update 6/30/2025