Pao-Li CHANG (張寶莉)


Associate Professor

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road, #05-042

Singapore 178903


Tel:         (65) 6828-0830

Fax:        (65) 6828-0833






Ph.D., Economics, University of Michigan, 2002.

A.M., Economics, University of Michigan, 1997.

A.B., Business Administration, National Taiwan University, 1994.



Pao-Li is currently an Associate Professor of Economics at Singapore Management University (SMU); an Associate Editor for Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Economic Modelling; and serves on the Editorial Board of Taiwan Economic Review.  She is also a Fellow of the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER) and a Lee Kong Chian Fellow.  She graduated with a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan.  Her research specializes in the area of international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), applied econometrics, and their interfaces with institutions.  She is in particular interested in the working of the GATT/WTO multilateral trading system, the political economy of trade policy, the effects of political institutions on FDI, and the interaction of trade with education system.  Pao-Li has published in renowned journals such as International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Econometrics Journal, and Mathematical Social Sciences.  She has also worked as a consultant for the United Nations Secretariat and the Boston Consulting Group on trade-related projects, and served as referees for many well-known economics journals. She was awarded research excellence and teaching excellence awards from SMU.


She is a Taiwanese, married to a Japanese economist, with three daughters (who play piano, violin, and cello).



Journal Articles

1.       “Geography, Trade and Power-Law Phenomena,” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Jan 2020. Oxford University Press. With Wen-Tai Hsu.


2.       “Trade and Divergence in Education Systems,” International Economic Review, November 2014, 55(4): 1251–1280. With Fali Huang (SMU).

Article  Technical Appendix

3.       “Risk and the Technology Content of FDI: A Dynamic Model,” Journal of International Economics, March 2012, 86(2): 306–317. With Chia-Hui Lu (City University of Hong Kong).

Article  Working paper version

4.       “The WTO Trade Effect,” Journal of International Economics, September 2011, 85(1): 5371. With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).

Article  Data & Programs  Working paper version

5.       “Estimation of Impulse Response Functions Using Long Autoregression,” Econometrics Journal, July 2007, 10(2): 453–469. With Shinichi Sakata (University of British Columbia).


6.        “Avoiding Arbitrary Exclusion Restrictions Using Ratios of Reduced-Form Estimates,” Empirical Economics, 2007, 33: 339–357. With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).


7.       “L S Penrose's limit theorem: Tests by simulation,” Mathematical Social Sciences, January 2006, 51(1): 90–106. With Vincent C.H. Chua (SMU) and Moshé Machover (LSE).


8.       “Protection for sale under monopolistic competition,” Journal of International Economics, July 2005, 66(2): 509–526.


9.       “How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?” Economics Letters, December 2000, 69(3): 299–307. With Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan).



Working Papers (contact me for the latest version)

1.       The GATT/WTO Welfare Effects: 1950-2015,” with Wei Jin, September 2018. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 02-2018.           Under revision.

2.       “Does “America First'' Help America?  The Impact of Country Image on Exports and Welfare,” with Tomoki Fujii and Wei Jin, June 2018. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 03-2018.    R&R for Management Science.

3.       “Informal Institutions and Comparative Advantage of South-Based MNEs: Theory and Evidence,” with Yuting Chen, June 2018. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 04-2018.           2nd R&R for Journal of Development Economics.

4.       “Cultural Preferences in International Trade: Evidence from the Globalization of Korean Pop Culture,” with Iona Hyojung Lee, November 2018. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 05-2018.      R&R for European Economic Review.

5.       “Made in Singapore,” with Phuong T. B. Nguyen, January 2019. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 01-2019.          R&R for Singapore Economic Review.

6.       “Global Value Chains and the CPTPP,” with Phuong T. B. Nguyen, June 2019. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 12-2019.           Under review.

7.       “Singapore in the Global Value Chains,” with Phuong T. B. Nguyen, January 2020. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 1-2020. To be included as a chapter in the book, “The Singapore Economy: Designing Its Dynamism and Inclusion,” edited by Hian Teck Hoon.

8.       “Quantifying Quality Specialization Across Space: Skills, Sorting, and Agglomeration,” with Angdi Lu and Xin Yi, January 2020. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 2-2020.


Work in Progress

1.       “The Missing Middle in Product Quality Distribution,” with Haeyeon Yoon and Xin Yi.

2.       “Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Global Value Chains,” with Xin Yi and Angdi Lu.

3.       “The Depth of Preferential Trade Agreements,” with Kefang Yao and Wei Jin.

4.       The Impacts of GATT/WTO on Firm Dynamics: 1976-2015,” with Renjing Chen and Wei Jin.

5.       The Balance of Concessions in the World Trade Organization,” with Mostafa Beshkar and Shenxi Song.

6.       “Power Laws in Trade, Employment and Wages” with Joanne Tan and Yi-Fan Chen.

7.       “Entrepreneurship, Education System, and Trade Pattern,” with Alan Deardorff.

Latest update 2/1/2020