Pao-Li CHANG (張寶莉)


Associate Professor of Economics; Lee Kong Chian Fellow

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road, #05-042

Singapore 178903


Tel:         (65) 6828-0830

Fax:        (65) 6828-0833






Ph.D., Economics, University of Michigan, 2002.

A.M., Economics, University of Michigan, 1997.

A.B., Business Administration, National Taiwan University, 1994.



Pao-Li is currently an Associate Professor of Economics at Singapore Management University (SMU); an Associate Editor for Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Economic Modelling; and serves on the Editorial Board of Taiwan Economic Review (National Taiwan University, Taiwan) and Taipei Economic Inquiry (National Taipei University, Taiwan).  She is also a Fellow of the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER) and a Lee Kong Chian Fellow.  She graduated with a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan.  Pao-Li has published in renowned journals such as International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Management Science, Econometrics Journal, and Mathematical Social Sciences.  She has also worked as a consultant for the United Nations Secretariat and the Boston Consulting Group on trade-related projects, and served as referees for many well-known economics journals. She was awarded research excellence and teaching excellence awards from SMU.


She is a Taiwanese, married to a Japanese economist, with three daughters (who play piano, violin, and cello).


Research areas:

     GATT/WTO institution and laws

     Political economy of trade agreements

     Empirical analysis of trade and foreign direct investment

     Quantitative analysis of trade flows and welfare evaluations

     Effects of political institutions on FDI flows

     Impact of education systems on human capital composition and trade patterns

     Measurement of global value chain

     Effects of preference and demand shocks on trade flows   



Journal Articles

1.      “Global Value Chains and the CPTPP,” The World Economy, April 2022, accepted. With Phuong T. B. Nguyen.

Working paper version: SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 12-2019.

2.      “Good Names Beget Favors: The Impact of Country Image on Trade Flows and Welfare,” Management Science, February 2022. With Tomoki Fujii and Wei Jin. DOI:

Working paper version: SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 03-2018. Circulated previously under the title “Does “America First'' Help America?  The Impact of Country Image on Exports and Welfare.”

Data & Programs  Working paper version  Online Appendix   

3.      “Informal Institutions and Comparative Advantage of South-Based MNEs: Theory and Evidence,” Journal of Development Economics, January 2021, 148, Article 102566. With Yuting Chen. (

4.     “The Optimal Degree of Reciprocity in Tariff Reduction,” East Asian Economic Review (by Korea Institute for International Economic Policy), 2020, 24(3), pp. 237-252. (

5.     “Made in Singapore,” Singapore Economic Review forthcoming, 2020. With Phuong T. B. Nguyen. (

6.      “Geography, Trade and Power-Law Phenomena,” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Jan 2020. Oxford University Press. With Wen-Tai Hsu. (


7.      “Trade and Divergence in Education Systems,” International Economic Review, November 2014, 55(4): 1251–1280. With Fali Huang (SMU).

Article  Technical Appendix

8.      “Risk and the Technology Content of FDI: A Dynamic Model,” Journal of International Economics, March 2012, 86(2): 306–317. With Chia-Hui Lu (City University of Hong Kong).

Article  Working paper version

9.      “The WTO Trade Effect,” Journal of International Economics, September 2011, 85(1): 5371. With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).

Article  Data & Programs  Working paper version

10.   “Estimation of Impulse Response Functions Using Long Autoregression,” Econometrics Journal, July 2007, 10(2): 453–469. With Shinichi Sakata (University of British Columbia).


11.    “Avoiding Arbitrary Exclusion Restrictions Using Ratios of Reduced-Form Estimates,” Empirical Economics, 2007, 33: 339–357. With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).


12.   “L S Penrose's limit theorem: Tests by simulation,” Mathematical Social Sciences, January 2006, 51(1): 90–106. With Vincent C.H. Chua (SMU) and Moshé Machover (LSE).


13.   “Protection for sale under monopolistic competition,” Journal of International Economics, July 2005, 66(2): 509–526.


14.   “How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?” Economics Letters, December 2000, 69(3): 299–307. With Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan).



Chapters in Books

1.      “Singapore in the Global Value Chains,” with Phuong T. B. Nguyen, in The Singapore Economy: Dynamism and Inclusion, Hian Teck Hoon (ed), Routledge, 2021. Earlier version in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 1-2020.

2.      “The Evolution and Utilization of the GATT/WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism,” in Trade Disputes and the Dispute Settlement Understanding of The WTO, James C. Hartigan (ed), Emerald, 2009.

3.      “Trade, FDI, and Regional Competition: The Case of Singapore,” in The Economic Prospects of Singapore, Winston T.H. Koh and Robert S. Mariano (eds), Singapore: Addison Wesley, 2005.


Working Papers (contact me for the latest version)

1.      The GATT/WTO Welfare Effects: 1950-2015,” with Wei Jin and Kefang Yao, September 2018. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 02-2018.     Under revision.

2.      The Impacts of GATT/WTO on Firm-level Trade Structure: 1978-2015,” with Renjing Chen and Wei Jin.             Under revision.

3.      “The Response of the Chinese Economy to the U.S.-China Trade War: 2018-2019,” with Kefang Yao and Fan Zheng. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 25-2020.       Under revision.

4.      “The Missing Middle in Product Quality Distribution,” with Xin Yi and Haeyeon Yoon, July 2021. Available at SSRN: SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 05-2021.           Under revision.

5.      “Cultural Preferences in International Trade: Evidence from the Globalization of Korean Pop Culture,” with Iona Hyojung Lee, November 2018. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 05-2018. Under revision.

6.      “The Potential Impacts of COVID-19 on the Global Value Chains: GVC Positioning and Linkages,” with Gerald Foong. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 24-2020.

7.      “Quantifying Quality Specialization Across Space: Skills, Sorting, and Agglomeration,” with Angdi Lu and Xin Yi, January 2020. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 2-2020.


Work in Progress

1.      Labor Participation, Wage Income Inequality, and Heterogeneous Welfare Gains from Trade,” with Yi-Fan Chen and Wen-Tai Hsu.

2.      Labor Market Implications of Taiwan's accession to the WTO: A Dynamic Quantitative Analysis,” Pao-Li Chang, Yi-Fan Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu and Xin Yi.

3.      “The Depth of Preferential Trade Agreements,” with Kefang Yao and Wei Jin.

4.      “Decomposing the Welfare Effects of Deep Trade Agreements: A Synthetic Control Method,” with Kefang Yao.

5.      “Estimating Firm-Level Production Functions with Spatial Dependence in Output, Input, and Productivity,” Pao-Li Chang, Ryo Makioka, Bo Lin Ng, and Zhenlin Yang.

6.      The Balance of Concessions in the World Trade Organization,” with Mostafa Beshkar and Shenxi Song.

7.      “Power Laws in Trade, Employment and Wages” with Joanne Tan and Yi-Fan Chen.

8.      “Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Global Value Chains,” with Xin Yi and Angdi Lu.

“Entrepreneurship, Education System, and Trade Pattern,” with Alan Deardorff.


Media Contributions and Citations

1.      “The Intersection of Education and Trade,” Asian Scientist Magazine at: With Fali Huang.

2.      “When Firms Turn Weakness Into Strength,” Asian Scientist Magazine at:

3.      “Singapore in the global value chains,” The Business Times, Date: 18 March 2020

4.      “How Covid-19 could transform the global economy,” SMU Engage: Thought Leadership, 6 May 2020


Latest update 4/18/2022